Yes, street crime rate is down
It has reduced by a massive 40% in 2011 compared with 2009
UNDERSTANDING the nature of the crime helps explain why we are so successful
I am asked this at funerals, weddings, birthdays, reunions, wherever and whenever I am part of a gathering. I have been asked this so many times I could have written a song about this recurrent transformation blues.
Next time, I will just ask them to read this article. The question: Is our crime rate really coming down? My unqualified, unambiguous, unequivocal answer is yes! The figures show it beyond a shadow of a doubt. I shall explain why and how we did it.
But first, how do we measure the crime rate? Essentially, it's through police reports and we total these up according to each crime category. We made street crime, which covers snatch thefts and robberies without firearms, a priority because the public was upset by it.
Then we have index crime, which covers 14 categories (including those under street crime) such as thefts, break-ins, robberies, assault, rape and murder. Suffice to say, our index is comparable to other countries and good enough to indicate crime trends, which is what we are primarily interested in.
Our achievements have been good and we have been at about target in reducing the crime rate. The more obvious and headline-grabbing street crime came down a massive 40% in 2011 compared with 2009 while the broader spectrum index crime came down 11%. We have reversed a trend of increasing crime.
I know there are many doubts about our achievements especially with respect to street crime. How could we reduce street crime by 40% in just two years? Here's how we did it.
Our lab for crime mapped out street crime committed throughout the country. Predictably these were highest in the urban areas with Selangor, Penang, Johor and the Federal Territory alone accounting for some 70%.
What was more interesting was that 70% to 80% of street crimes was concentrated in just 50 hotspots. The Pareto rule seemed in operation here with 80% of crime concentrated in 20% or less of the areas.
The solution was as simple as it was elegant. Just deploy more of the existing police capability into the hotspots instead of uniformly everywhere. Last year, we redeployed more than 21,600 police personnel to patrol crime hotspots. In addition, we have also mobilised more than 3,900 Rela and 1,600 civil defence personnel as police volunteer reserve to support police personnel in their patrolling duties. Finally, more than 110,000 Rukun Tetangga voluntary patrol members are also watching over residential areas throughout Malaysia.
It was almost a certainty we would succeed once we analysed the problem correctly. We saw the results in a very short while, and yes they were dramatic. That was because the problem was concentrated and we could redeploy existing resources with excellent results. This same exercise was successfully done by the police in the United Kingdom and New York.
Getting on top of the situation
Kudos to the police: ‘Let’s not take that away from the police. Let’s recognise the good work that they are doing in fighting crime.’ March 30 file picture by Andre Oliveiro of The Star djoed Datuk Wan Junaidi handing over the cash aid to Datuk Peter Nyomek during the handing over cheques to former police officers who served during the emergency in Kuching.
Yes, we know the hotspots will change but since we know, we are on top of the situation. And we are taking a lot of other measures, too numerous to mention here, such as street lights, mirrors, cameras, increasing resources, volunteer-based patrols and so on. Visit our website if you are interested.
Index crime is not so easy to bring down but we still exceeded targets. Here the resource constraints have greater impact. A big part over 40% - of index crime is related to vehicle theft and we have managed to make great progress here through search operations.
I know some of us Malaysians are a sceptical lot and are more likely to believe bad news than good news. Are the figures right, is crime under-reported, they ask. Scepticism is good up to a point but it must be tempered by the facts or else healthy sceptics will become chronic cynics.
One fact: The relevant crime statistics are audited by an international firm of accountants, reducing possibility of manipulation of figures. Yes, I have heard the explanation that people don't make police reports and that the police discourage reports where there has been no loss or when there is little chance of recovering the property as a factor for reduced reported crime.
To that I would like to say that the Inspector-General of Police has issued a standing order to all policemen to take reports from the public. As a member of the public you can and should insist on making a police report when a crime is committed no matter how small or big. If you do that you will help us capture the right statistics.
Reduction in vehicle claims
There is one piece of evidence which does not rely on police reports. Insurance companies have reported a near 10% reduction in vehicle claim cases in 2010 versus 2009. How come, if the crime rate has not actually gone down?
If you need more evidence of progress, here are two more pieces. A survey by independent international research company Taylor Nelson Sofres shows a near 10% reduction in fear of crime from 58.5% to 52.9% of the population. Still high but progress in the right direction. The same firm's index measuring public satisfaction with the police taken from surveys of those leaving police stations indicate 70.5% satisfaction in 2011 against just 35.8% in 2009. Surveys asking for SMS responses recorded similarly high satisfaction rates in encounters with the police.
Let me give another piece of evidence, just for the people who will believe only what the leaders of Pakatan Rakyat say. Lim Guan Eng, Chief Minister of Penang, is on YouTube confirming that street crime has fallen in Penang.
Anecdotally you may have heard that so and so was a victim of snatch theft for instance. Two things you have to bear in mind one, when did it happen? Often on reflection the event happened before we started in 2009. Two, we have not stopped street crime yet and we won't completely.
In 2009, there were 38,030 incidents of street crime and this dropped to 24,837 in 2010 and 22,929 in 2011. So, if anyone cites a few incidents of street crime to conclude that we are not making progress, my reply is that I can cite even more as the total number of street crimes last year was 22,929. The truth is that street crime has been reducing in the last two years. If you expect zero street crime, forget it; zero crime only exists in Heaven! Here on Earth, there will always be victims of street crime. It's the incidence that matters.
Let's give credit when and where it's due every available shred of hard evidence indicates that the police have done a great job in reducing crime and especially street crime although much more needs to be done. Let's not take that away from the police. Let's recognise the good work that they are doing in fighting crime.
Helen Keller once said “Keep your face to the sun and you will never see shadows”.
Datuk Seri Idris Jala is CEO of Pemandu and Minister in the Prime Minister's Department. Fair and reasonable comments are most welcome at idrisjala@pemandu.gov.my
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